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Tim Magee presented “Production Cost Model Evaluation with a Hydropower Operations Model” on November 9, 2020, at the annual meeting of INFORMS, the leading international association for operations research and analytics professionals. Co-authors were Mitch Clement and Edith Zagona of CADSWES and Nathalie Voisin of Pacific Northwest National Labs.

Abstract: Grid-scale production cost models (PCMs) optimize generation and transmission of electricity to meet load. Hydropower is an important component of these models because its flexibility aids the addition of intermittent renewable generation, such as wind and solar power, to the grid. Grid-scale PCM models do not include many of the factors that limit hydropower flexibility. We reuse a detailed RiverWare model of the Columbia River used in daily operations both to evaluate existing PCM simulations over the North American Western Interconnect and to improve the representation of hydropower in PCMs. The RiverWare model uses a combination of goal programming methods that reflect policy priorities for power and nonpower purposes. The model can precisely evaluate the flexibility effects of factors such as reservoir storage state, forecasted inflows and seasonal constraints.