Investigating Enso Signal In Ciliwung Streamflow Variability, Jakarta, Indonesia
Yanto, Yanto 1 ; Zagona, Edith 2 ; Balaji, Rajagopalan 3
1 CEAE and CADSWES University of Colorado at Boulder
2 CEAE and CADSWES University of Colorado at Boulder
3 CEAE and CIRES University of Colorado at Boulder
Ciliwung is the main river flowing through Jakarta, the capitol city of Indonesia. This river is the source of extreme flood occurences in Jakarta, more so in the last two decades. Furthermore, low streamflow in dry season is of concern for water supply, thus, making water management in this river basin challenging. To help with the management, understanding the year-to-year variability of stream flow in this basin is significantly important.
It is well known that El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulate the interannual variability of rainfall over Indonesia. Therefore, we posit that ENSO also impacts the variability of streamflow in this river basin. Here we diagnose the relationship between streamflow in Ciliwung basin and large scale climate variables associated with the ENSO phenomena. Subsequently, we develop a statistical prediction model for the wet season (Dec-Feb) streamflow based on the climate predictors developed from the above diagnostics. We find significant prediction skill, improving the prospects for efficient water resources management.